Exposed the Strategy of Warren Buffett
Understanding Warren Buffett's investment genius is not that
difficult. However, it is often counterintuitive to the investment theories and
strategies that 99 % of most investors follow. What is counterintuitive about
Buffett's methods? When others are rushing to sell off stocks, Warren will be
selectively buying in. The key word here is "selectively" When Warren
is buying in, he is picking the cream of the crop - companies that have a
durable competitive advantage.
And when the whole world is counting its riches after buying
into a bull market, we find Warren selling out into the rising market,
gathering a large cash position. In the two of a bull market, we are that make
the up top likely to find Warren sitting idly about - doing nothing appearing
to be missing all the easy money offered up by the seemingly endless rise in
stock prices.
In fact, at the high end of the last two bull markets,
investment pundits of the day pointed their fingers at Warren proclaiming he
had lost his touch or was over the hill. Yet when these markets finally
crashed, and the masses were bailing out of stocks, who did we find at the
bottom of the investment barrel picking up some of the greatest companies in
the world at bargain prices? Warren Buffett.
Buffett's early strategy was to cash out of the market when
it started to reach a buying frenzy, as in the late sixties. In later years
warren simply stopped buying when prices got too high and let the cash build up
in Berkshire Hathaway, waiting to take advantage of the inevitable crash in
stock prices. It is his superior understanding of the microeconomic forces that
drive individual businesses that allows him to pick future winners from the heap
of rubble. He buys into companies that have superior long-term economics in
their favor. These exceptional businesses make for superior long-term,
twenty-to - forty-year investments.
When the stock market crashes, Warren buys into companies
that have good economics working in their favor - companies he sells as the
market and their stock prices recover. This gives him cash for future
investments. He also invests in individual "events" that might - over
the short term - drive down a company's share price below what its long-term
economics makes it worth. And he is a big player in the field of arbitrage,
which also generates large amounts of cash.
Buffett's key to success begins with having cash when others
don't. Then he waits. Once the stock market is crashing and offering up
excellent businesses at bargain prices, he is in there buying. Next, he holds
on to the great businesses as the market moves up, selling off the average
businesses and letting the cash start to pile up. Finally, as the market starts
to move onto high ground, he lets the excess income from dividends and stock
sales pile up in his cash account keeping only the companies with a durable
competitive advantage that will help make him superrich over the long term. (Warren
lets the cash income from all of Berkshire's businesses build up. Individual
investors would let earned excess income accumulate in their money market
account. )
Warren has repeated this cycle over and over and over again
to the point that he has an enormous portfolio of some of the finest businesses
that have ever existed, and in the process, he has become the richest person in
the world in 2008.
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